From Threat to Action: How the EU Could Fight Back Against Trump’s Economic Pressure
On 18 January 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that he would request the activation of the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument in response to recent threats of unilateral tariff increases by the United States. These developments have brought renewed attention to Regulation (EU) 2023/2675 on the protection of the Union and its Member States from economic coercion by third countries.
Adopted on 22 November 2023 and in force since 27 December 2023, Regulation (EU) 2023/2675 establishes a legal framework enabling the EU to respond when a third country applies, or threatens to apply, measures affecting trade or investment in order to influence the sovereign decisions of the EU or its Member States. The instrument, often referred to as the EU’s “trade bazooka”, is conceived primarily as a deterrent mechanism, aimed at preventing coercive conduct before retaliatory measures become necessary.
Economic coercion, within the meaning of the Regulation, occurs where a third country interferes with legitimate EU or Member State choices through economic pressure. The assessment of such coercion involves a detailed examination by the European Commission, taking into account the severity, duration and impact of the measures concerned, as well as their effect on EU sovereignty and whether the coercing country has acted in good faith.
Where economic coercion is established, the EU is required to first seek a resolution through dialogue. Only if such efforts fail may the EU adopt proportionate countermeasures, provided that these are necessary to safeguard the Union’s interests and are consistent with its overall policy objectives. Possible responses include trade restrictions, measures affecting services or investment, or limitations on access to EU public procurement and capital markets.
To date, the Anti-Coercion Instrument has never been applied. However, recent geopolitical tensions raise the possibility of a first-ever activation of this mechanism, thereby testing the EU’s capacity to act autonomously and in a coordinated manner in the face of external economic pressure.
In this article, Bruno Lebrun, Partner, analyses the scope and functioning of Regulation (EU) 2023/2675, the conditions under which economic coercion may be established, and the range of response measures available to the EU. He also considers the practical and political implications of a potential first application of the Anti-Coercion Instrument.